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PUBLICATION

This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

As part of ongoing improvements to the ABS seasonal adjustment methodology, an improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates has been introduced. Corrections for trading day effects are now applied as prior corrections to the original estimates, rather than being applied within the seasonal adjustment process. This is now consistent with treatment of appropriate corrections for large extremes, changes in level, changes in seasonal pattern, Easter, and other effects. This change in methodology has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted and trend estimates. For further information, see paragraph 6 of the Explanatory Notes.

The seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should be used with caution. The small numbers and volatile nature of these data in recent months make reliable estimation of the seasonal pattern very difficult. The seasonally adjusted figures for Australia and other states/territories remain unaffected. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.


DECEMBER 2004 KEY POINTS

Trend

The trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles decreased 0.8% to 79,632 in December 2004. When compared with December 2003 (77,711) the trend estimate has shown an increase of 2.5%.

The trend estimate for sales of passenger vehicles recorded a decrease of 1.1% over the last month while sales of sports utility vehicles decreased 0.6% and other vehicles increased 0.1%.

When compared with December 2003, the trend estimate of passenger vehicle sales decreased 1.1%, sports utility vehicles increased 12.5%, and other vehicles increased 5.2%.

With the exception of Victoria which recorded an increase of 0.2%, all states and territories recorded decreases in the trend estimate for sales of new motor vehicles in December 2004 compared to November 2004.


Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate for sales of new motor vehicles decreased 6.4% to 75,476 in December 2004. Passenger vehicle sales decreased 9.7%, sales of sports utility vehicles decreased 4.5% while sales of other new vehicles increased 2.3% in December 2004 compared to November 2004.

All states and territories recorded decreases in the seasonally adjusted estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles with Western Australia recording the largest decrease (down 13.9%).


NOTES


TREND REVISIONS

Trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Sports utility vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change passenger vehicles (%)	Change sports utility vehicles (%)	Change other vehicles (%)	Change total vehicles (%)
Original
2003	October	52,180	12,318	14,727	79,225	0.8	6.3	1.9	1.8
	November	48,482	12,892	14,738	76,112	-7.1	4.7	0.1	-3.9
	December	49,834	13,296	14,656	77,786	2.8	3.1	-0.6	2.2
2004	January	40,715	12,291	11,791	64,797	-18.3	-7.6	-19.5	-16.7
	February	47,876	12,865	15,136	75,877	17.6	4.7	28.4	17.1
	March	53,728	15,005	17,313	86,046	12.2	16.6	14.4	13.4
	April	44,079	12,351	14,875	71,305	-18.0	-17.7	-14.1	-17.1
	May	46,168	15,052	17,059	78,279	4.7	21.9	14.7	9.8
	June	58,284	17,981	20,947	97,212	26.2	19.5	22.8	24.2
	July	46,724	14,442	15,869	77,035	-19.8	-19.7	-24.2	-20.8
	August	48,649	14,910	15,685	79,244	4.1	3.2	-1.2	2.9
	September	49,911	14,715	15,826	80,452	2.6	-1.3	0.9	1.5
	October	52,290	13,907	15,470	81,667	4.8	-5.5	-2.2	1.5
	November	52,888	15,257	16,190	84,335	1.1	9.7	4.7	3.3
	December	48,673	14,311	15,996	78,980	-8.0	-6.2	-1.2	-6.3
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	October	49,052	12,591	15,017	76,660	-6.8	0.2	-0.4	-4.5
	November	48,163	13,140	14,924	76,227	-1.8	4.4	-0.6	-0.6
	December	46,467	13,373	15,026	74,866	-3.5	1.8	0.7	-1.8
2004	January	49,658	14,019	15,718	79,395	6.9	4.8	4.6	6.0
	February	50,228	13,345	15,949	79,522	1.1	-4.8	1.5	0.2
	March	49,180	13,464	16,316	78,960	-2.1	0.9	2.3	-0.7
	April	48,228	13,289	15,888	77,405	-1.9	-1.3	-2.6	-2.0
	May	48,045	14,491	16,076	78,612	-0.4	9.0	1.2	1.6
	June	49,876	14,514	15,435	79,825	3.8	0.2	-4.0	1.5
	July	47,271	14,643	15,964	77,878	-5.2	0.9	3.4	-2.4
	August	48,299	14,983	15,793	79,075	2.2	2.3	-1.1	1.5
	September	50,263	15,210	16,274	81,747	4.1	1.5	3.0	3.4
	October	51,938	15,432	16,649	84,019	3.3	1.5	2.3	2.8
	November	49,930	15,009	15,691	80,630	-3.9	-2.7	-5.8	-4.0
	December	45,095	14,328	16,053	75,476	-9.7	-4.5	2.3	-6.4
Trend
2003	October	50,229	12,863	14,990	78,082	-1.1	1.1	0.8	-0.4
	November	49,620	13,058	15,145	77,823	-1.2	1.5	1.0	-0.3
	December	49,099	13,254	15,358	77,711	-1.0	1.5	1.4	-0.1
2004	January	48,816	13,413	15,606	77,835	-0.6	1.2	1.6	0.2
	February	48,787	13,538	15,828	78,153	-0.1	0.9	1.4	0.4
	March	48,844	13,665	15,957	78,466	0.1	0.9	0.8	0.4
	April	48,777	13,834	15,975	78,586	-0.1	1.2	0.1	0.2
	May	48,596	14,087	15,933	78,616	-0.4	1.8	-0.3	+0.0
	June	48,607	14,427	15,899	78,933	+0.0	2.4	-0.2	0.4
	July	48,900	14,756	15,917	79,573	0.6	2.3	0.1	0.8
	August	49,303	14,976	15,990	80,269	0.8	1.5	0.5	0.9
	September	49,510	15,063	16,070	80,643	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.5
	October	49,425	15,065	16,122	80,612	-0.2	+0.0	0.3	-0.0
	November	49,096	15,001	16,139	80,236	-0.7	-0.4	0.1	-0.5
	December	48,559	14,917	16,156	79,632	-1.1	-0.6	0.1	-0.8

		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	TAS.(a)	NT	ACT	Aust.
		(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)	(No.)
Original
2003	October	25533	21337	15521	5430	7487	2008	607	1302	79225
	November	25099	20254	15058	5214	6925	1717	630	1215	76112
	December	25113	21071	15265	5404	7161	1860	593	1319	77786
2004	January	21216	16857	13403	4334	6249	1193	498	1047	64797
	February	24955	19727	15901	5059	7113	1297	686	1139	75877
	March	28118	22137	18611	5561	8086	1343	912	1278	86046
	April	23033	19083	14831	4670	6529	1229	812	1118	71305
	May	25649	20106	16373	5215	7296	1513	918	1209	78279
	June	31438	23929	22026	6436	8969	1982	958	1474	97212
	July	25031	19410	17141	4949	7228	1449	646	1181	77035
	August	24795	20850	17269	5414	7513	1585	677	1141	79244
	September	25241	20821	17188	5289	8177	1855	739	1142	80452
	October	25621	22747	16079	5413	7875	1981	709	1242	81667
	November	26619	23052	17117	5450	8157	1944	694	1302	84335
	December	24315	21700	16537	4998	7341	2245	647	1197	78980
Seasonally Adjusted
2003	October	24586	20197	15608	5324	7153	1937	620	1235	76660
	November	24546	20329	15559	5260	7070	1593	648	1222	76227
	December	24677	19838	14986	5175	7010	1263	646	1271	74866
2004	January	26089	20966	16231	5398	7289	1539	660	1223	79395
	February	26414	20771	16437	5196	7202	1536	750	1216	79522
	March	25811	20476	16736	5177	7352	1425	776	1207	78960
	April	25208	20445	16093	5153	7062	1481	766	1197	77405
	May	25235	20386	16707	5203	7557	1550	771	1203	78612
	June	25562	20358	17659	5243	7215	1853	727	1208	79825
	July	25224	19476	17108	5025	7599	1561	683	1202	77878
	August	24976	20643	17129	5298	7623	1541	727	1138	79075
	September	25701	21093	17244	5405	8413	1880	806	1205	81747
	October	25983	23059	17388	5628	7961	1990	762	1248	84019
	November	25470	21550	16716	5208	8057	1710	709	1210	80630
	December	23775	20343	16292	4766	6935	1508	700	1157	75476
Trend
2003	October	25844	20714	15530	5313	7172	1605	635	1269	78082
	November	25664	20622	15614	5303	7144	1573	646	1257	77823
	December	25567	20560	15735	5277	7143	1520	666	1243	77711
2004	January	25567	20543	15915	5249	7162	1477	694	1228	77835
	February	25627	20536	16159	5225	7197	1467	723	1219	78153
	March	25668	20495	16433	5200	7226	1487	745	1212	78466
	April	25602	20371	16687	5173	7267	1525	758	1203	78586
	May	25446	20234	16903	5164	7338	1573	762	1196	78616
	June	25346	20246	17085	5196	7479	1629	760	1192	78933
	July	25363	20463	17202	5253	7656	1686	757	1193	79573
	August	25429	20813	17238	5300	7805	1734	754	1196	80269
	September	25419	21154	17170	5314	7881	1755	752	1198	80643
	October	25313	21405	17030	5289	7874	1757	745	1199	80612
	November	25134	21537	16858	5231	7800	1742	735	1199	80236
	December	24908	21574	16660	5157	7703	1707	726	1197	79632
(a) Seasonally adjusted numbers of new motor vehicle sales in Tasmania should be used with caution. For further information, see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes.